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Week 14 Thread - Sussudio

Southpaw

Fuckface
Utopia Moderator
I know harbaugh is a Michigan man and he's doing fine, but how long until they fire him for not beating tOSU?

Well it won't be a firing per se. He will move on back the NFL though at their encouragement.
 

DeadMan

aka spiker or DeadMong
I know harbaugh is a Michigan man and he's doing fine, but how long until they fire him for not beating tOSU?

Well it won't be a firing per se. He will move on back the NFL though at their encouragement.
You don't have to look very far to find programs that have fired good, but not elite, coaches and immediately tanked. Michigan among them, even though Carr wasn't actually fired. If his worst season is 8-5, people will grumble but he won't be pushed out. We'd be really stupid to do that, unless someone with a profile like Urban Meyer is going to replace him.

It's a weird situation because he's underachieved, but he also hasn't lost to a bad, or even average, team. He's lost 4 games at home, half of them to playoff teams. On the other hand, when he loses, he tends to get blown out. And there was a 6 game stretch (the end of last year and the first 3 games this year) where Michigan failed to cover the spread by 17 points in each game.

There are some obvious problems, and it's pretty clear we're going to be below Ohio State for the near future. Still, I would rather be a team ranked 10-15, where he has him, to celebrating making a bowl game.
 

Bdub

Well-Known Member
You don't have to look very far to find programs that have fired good, but not elite, coaches and immediately tanked. Michigan among them, even though Carr wasn't actually fired. If his worst season is 8-5, people will grumble but he won't be pushed out. We'd be really stupid to do that, unless someone with a profile like Urban Meyer is going to replace him.
Feel like Washington just did this.
 

Skeeter

Well-Known Member
Michigan is okie st. Look at their history over the last 50 years. This is Michigan at its best. 2-3 losses a year incliding a bowl game loss. Harbaugh actually has brought them back. The only difference is Ohio State has elevated it's game.

I still think harbaugh dips to the NFL this season as I expect he has also realized this is Michigan's ceiling.

/Hot take
 

DeadMan

aka spiker or DeadMong
Michigan is okie st. Look at their history over the last 50 years. This is Michigan at its best. 2-3 losses a year incliding a bowl game loss. Harbaugh actually has brought them back. The only difference is Ohio State has elevated it's game.

I still think harbaugh dips to the NFL this season as I expect he has also realized this is Michigan's ceiling.

/Hot take
No, right now, Michigan is Auburn without the lucky wins against its chief rival.

It's also a stupid take. Not surprising that it's coming from you.


Here's Ohio State's historical ratings, for comparisons:


Virtually identical.
 

Skeeter

Well-Known Member
No, right now, Michigan is Auburn without the lucky wins against its chief rival.

It's also a stupid take. Not surprising that it's coming from you.


Here's Ohio State's historical ratings, for comparisons:


Virtually identical.
But we're not comparing OSU and um. The question is should harbaugh be fired. The answer is no. He's got them back to past glory.
 

DeadMan

aka spiker or DeadMong
But we're not comparing OSU and um. The question is should harbaugh be fired. The answer is no. He's got them back to past glory.
It's still a dumb take. Michigan won at least 5 Big Ten titles every decade from when Bo was hired until the turn of the century. And Lloyd won 3 Big Ten titles in the 2000s. It's easy to look at Michigan under Bo and go hurr durr, no national titles so he must be overrated, but that ignores that Michigan was a top 10 team every year from 1970 to 1992 and then every other year from 1992-2007. Bo had 4 teams not finish the year ranked in the top 10 the 20 years he was there. Llllllloyd Carr won 5 Big Ten titles in 13 years. Harbaugh hasn't gotten them back to even that point. He's close, sure, but he's not there. He's had one team finish inside the top 10, and that team finished #10.
 

Wooly

Well-Known Member
Well a huge part of that is skewed towards offensive side of the ball. Riley's team is incredible at attracting high-caliber athletes on that side of the house.

The other half of the equation is that everyone woefully overrates/estimates the talent on defense. Motley, Brown, Turner-Yell, Boo Radley, and whoever else they trot out there at DB are undersized, soft DBs that wouldn't sniff the field in SEC or Big 10 land. Nevil Gallimore and Kenneth Murray are the only two athletes on that side of the ball that are anything exceptional. They have decent athleticism at defensive line but that's kind of it.

All these years of getting trashed downfield against high powered offenses were a function of a few things:
1) Extremely talented QBs up and down the Big 12 playing in efficient, cutting-edge offensive systems.
2) Being anchored by a defensive coordinator that was trying to run schemes that simply were too complicated for the players on the field.
3) Everyone collectively overrating OU's defensive talent because they're a top tier college program, their defensive players must be superior athletically.

If you want to see athleticism, look at Baylor's defense. They've got some athletes up front and that's why their D is #1 in the Big 12. Until teams are able to steal more SEC talent, the Big 12 will always lag behind on the defensive line. Why?

Demographics. Do a simple demographics assessment and you'll see we lack sorely in population compared to the PAC, B1G, and SEC. Hell, where did the spread evolve? Where do the modern trends repeatedly come from? Big 12 country. Why?

It's like a market. Flyover country lacks superior/elite talent up front and what it does produce gets poached by SEC land. Inefficiencies up front drive innovation elsewhere. But anyway, the Big 12's population issue puts them behind the 8 ball specifically at defensive line. The first wave of anti-spread innovations is already here with most teams resorting to a 3-down front and flooding the field with DBs. Iowa State and Baylor, arguably the two best defenses in the conference this year, are at the forefront of this push. I'm curious what the next trend is on either side of the ball for flyover country.



That 2015 defense I think was better. But you also have to consider 2015 was a down year. Mahomes and Rudolph were growing/emerging into starting roles. Baylor had QB injuries. TCU had Boykin but those wheels came off mid-season due to injuries. Iowa State was still Iowa State, Kansas etc. Looking back at it, the Big 12 was down that year. It's similar in that way to this year. Lots of new coaches/QBs. While Grinch is absolutely an improvement, wouldn't celebrate yet. Look who returns:

-Charlie Brewer, best QB in the conference (IMO)
-Purdy, 2nd best QB
-Sanders, with another offseason to learn the offense he runs + understand defenses across the league
-Seth Doege, a QB that looks pretty darn salty
-Possibly Ehlinger?
-Both Duffey and Bowman at Tech, both solid QBs.

The next season is shaping up to be the deepest for the Big 12 since maybe 2008/2010/2011. Next season is a far better litmus test for Grinch than this season. I like Rattler's ability, but until someone proves it at the D-1 level you just never know how that's going to shape up. Some fun QB battles to be had though.
I don't know, I get what you are saying to an extent, but I don't think that's enough to explain or excuse a team like OU for their defense. Almost every team in the country runs a spread offense of some kind, and plenty of them defend it better than OU, including many with less athletic talent.

Is OU really not as talented on defense as other elite programs? Maybe, but if they are not, they can't be that far off. Maybe they don't quite have the talent of Bama or Ohio St., but they have to be better than 85% of teams. They are still Oklahoma after all. And while Oklahoma itself doesn't have the population and talent base of CA, OH, or FL, it's right next to the best recruiting state in the nation in Texas. They have always recruited Texas. OU used to have elite DL talent too.

Your demographic argument rings more true to me if we are discussing Nebraska, Kansas St, or TTU, but a lot less if we are discussing OU.

It just doesn't ring true to me that OU doesnt have enough defensive talent to be competent on defense, even if they are not elite. It seems more like a coaching issue to me, which you pointed out too.
 

Skeeter

Well-Known Member
Since 1960 Michigan had lost 2 or more games per season 52x

Just 4 11 win seasons since 1975 when they expanded to 12 regular season games

10 top 5 finishes since 1960 and 6 of those were Bo.

This is who you are
 

DeadMan

aka spiker or DeadMong
Since 1960 Michigan had lost 2 or more games per season 52x

Just 4 11 win seasons since 1975 when they expanded to 12 regular season games

10 top 5 finishes since 1960 and 6 of those were Bo.

This is who you are
Literally none of that contradicts what I said. Are you really this dumb? Do you not understand the difference between being top 15 and top 10? Or the difference between winning the Big Ten and not?
 

Southpaw

Fuckface
Utopia Moderator
You don't have to look very far to find programs that have fired good, but not elite, coaches and immediately tanked. Michigan among them, even though Carr wasn't actually fired. If his worst season is 8-5, people will grumble but he won't be pushed out. We'd be really stupid to do that, unless someone with a profile like Urban Meyer is going to replace him.

It's a weird situation because he's underachieved, but he also hasn't lost to a bad, or even average, team. He's lost 4 games at home, half of them to playoff teams. On the other hand, when he loses, he tends to get blown out. And there was a 6 game stretch (the end of last year and the first 3 games this year) where Michigan failed to cover the spread by 17 points in each game.

There are some obvious problems, and it's pretty clear we're going to be below Ohio State for the near future. Still, I would rather be a team ranked 10-15, where he has him, to celebrating making a bowl game.
I'm not asking you if you want to fire him. I am asking how long until the boosters and the AD fire him for not beating tOSU. You ain't running the program. Do you think your assessment is an honest assessment of how the fan base and AD view things?

Or maybe the better question is, how long does he stay before he leaves on his own?
 

DeadMan

aka spiker or DeadMong
I'm not asking you if you want to fire him. I am asking how long until the boosters and the AD fire him for not beating tOSU. You ain't running the program. Do you think your assessment is an honest assessment of how the fan base and AD view things?

Or maybe the better question is, how long does he stay before he leaves on his own?
The AD isn’t going to fire him. They played together under Bo, and I doubt he's going to want to fire his buddy for a bunch of good, but not amazing, seasons. I don't think the boosters have as much influence at Michigan as elsewhere, honestly. Michigan makes so much money from football games that it doesn't need boosters propping up the program. Plus, I think the boosters are happy at having a relatively successful Michigan Man at the helm, as dumb as that is.

I’m not sure he leaves on his own, either. He’s shot down every rumor that has him going to the NFL (and I’m not sure why the NFL would want him, given what he’s done at Michigan). This is now the longest he’s been at any coaching job, though. It's way more likely he leaves for another job than he gets fired. I wouldn't be overly surprised if he leaves in the next couple of years for another NFL job, but I think that gets less and less likely the longer he stays at Michigan/
 

goblue96

Disney and Curling Expert
Since 1960 Michigan had lost 2 or more games per season 52x

Just 4 11 win seasons since 1975 when they expanded to 12 regular season games

10 top 5 finishes since 1960 and 6 of those were Bo.

This is who you are
They expanded to 12 games in 1975?!?!? Surely, you mean 1995.
 

Southpaw

Fuckface
Utopia Moderator
I ask myself, self, If Tennessee was going 10-2 every year, but could never beat Alabama, would you take it? And I say yes, yes I would.

We going 6-6 or 5-7 and can't ever beat Alabama now anyway.

I used to like Harbaugh, but for some reason while he has been at Michigan, he just isn't as likable. Not really sure why.
 

Skeeter

Well-Known Member
Literally none of that contradicts what I said. Are you really this dumb? Do you not understand the difference between being top 15 and top 10? Or the difference between winning the Big Ten and not?
You're missing the point.
Quit dumbing here.
Michigan won the b1g with 2-3 loss seasons because the other teams were shitty those years. Michigan wins the b1g not typically by dominating the conference but by taking advantage of down years of PSU and OSU. Their 5-13 rose bowl record supports this.

They have .5 national championships since the Advent of the forward pass. But I guess those are supposedly a bad measure of success or something.

Don't try to make them something they never were
 

DeadMan

aka spiker or DeadMong
You're missing the point.
Quit dumbing here.
Michigan won the b1g with 2-3 loss seasons because the other teams were shitty those years. Michigan wins the b1g not typically by dominating the conference but by taking advantage of down years of PSU and OSU. Their 5-13 rose bowl record supports this.

They have .5 national championships since the Advent of the forward pass. But I guess those are supposedly a bad measure of success or something.

Don't try to make them something they never were
What the hell are you talking about? PSU didn't join the conference until 1993. Michigan has won the Big Ten twice with 2 loss Big Ten seasons.

You're the only person who is talking about Michigan and national championships. Yes, Michigan doesn't match up with programs like Alabama, Nebraska, Ohio State, or Oklahoma from 1970 until now. They are in the tier below that, which is means winning their conference frequently and finishing in the top 10. Harbaugh hasn't done that yet.

Let's look at the first 5 season of Bo, Moeller, Lloyd, and Harbaugh:
  • Bo: 4 Big Ten titles (I assume a couple of them split, but whatever), 5 top 10 finishes, 48-6-1, .873 winning %
  • Moeller: 3 Big Ten titles, 3 top 10 finishes, 44-13-3, .733 winning %
  • Lloyd: National Championship, 2 Big Ten titles, 2 top 10 finishes, 49-13, .790 winning %
  • Harbaugh: 1 top 10 finish, 47-17, .734 winning %
See things missing from Harbaugh in comparison to the rest?
 

Skeeter

Well-Known Member
What the hell are you talking about? PSU didn't join the conference until 1993. Michigan has won the Big Ten twice with 2 loss Big Ten seasons.

You're the only person who is talking about Michigan and national championships. Yes, Michigan doesn't match up with programs like Alabama, Nebraska, Ohio State, or Oklahoma from 1970 until now. They are in the tier below that, which is means winning their conference frequently and finishing in the top 10. Harbaugh hasn't done that yet.

Let's look at the first 5 season of Bo, Moeller, Lloyd, and Harbaugh:
  • Bo: 4 Big Ten titles (I assume a couple of them split, but whatever), 5 top 10 finishes, 48-6-1, .873 winning %
  • Moeller: 3 Big Ten titles, 3 top 10 finishes, 44-13-3, .733 winning %
  • Lloyd: National Championship, 2 Big Ten titles, 2 top 10 finishes, 49-13, .790 winning %
  • Harbaugh: 1 top 10 finish, 47-17, .734 winning %
See things missing from Harbaugh in comparison to the rest?
I hear you, but it's not harbaughs fault OSU is on a tremendous run right now. A down year or 2 from OSU and harbaugh would probably have a b1g title or 2 which would also likey turn into top 10 finishes. In that scenario he matches favorable to Lloyd and Moeller. Nobody is going to catch Bo. That's an unfair standard.

But in terms of your 3 best modern era coaches he's with them, he's just had bad luck that OSU and PSU have been really good too.

I can't believe I'm defending harbaugh...yuck.
 

DeadMan

aka spiker or DeadMong
Sure, but that's not the reality we're living in. If you want the full defense of Harbaugh, he's inches on a spot from having won a Big Ten title and going to the playoff in 2016. A drop by Maryland away from being in the Big Ten championship last year. His teams are consistently finishing in the top 10 of advanced metrics, and the bounces haven't gone his way for his teams to live up to what the advanced stats say he's doing.

Nobody talks about how Franklin is a slightly worse version of Harbaugh because he got a flukey win on a blocked punt against OSU and rode that win to a Rose Bowl and a Big Ten Championship. The margins are thin.

But the reason some fans are restless is because Harbaugh hasn't won a Big Ten title (which Michigan did frequently from 1970-2005) and hasn't beaten OSU (same). Anybody who's mad that Harbaugh hasn't won a national title is an idiot.
 
As a fan a lot of this is relative. FSU was winning 10 games a year but losing to Clemson and it sucked. I would take that back any day of the week now after going 7-6,5-7, 6-6 the last 3 seasons.
Michigan firing Harbaugh and then getting a dud of a coach and going 6-6 will make them long for the days of Harbaugh. But I can also understand their frustrations.
 

BasinBictory

CHICKEN NUT BREAD
I hear you, but it's not harbaughs fault OSU is on a tremendous run right now. A down year or 2 from OSU and harbaugh would probably have a b1g title or 2 which would also likey turn into top 10 finishes. In that scenario he matches favorable to Lloyd and Moeller. Nobody is going to catch Bo. That's an unfair standard.

But in terms of your 3 best modern era coaches he's with them, he's just had bad luck that OSU and PSU have been really good too.

I can't believe I'm defending harbaugh...yuck.
Curious @Skeeter , what were your feelings about John Cooper's teams?
 

Skeeter

Well-Known Member
Curious @Skeeter , what were your feelings about John Cooper's teams?
2-10-1 against your rival and a losing record in bowl games was tough. He was a coach who had national championship talent and managed to choke in every big game. Some of the best players in the history of OSU were Cooper players. He had 13 years to figure it out and couldn't get over the hump. He couldn't even take advantage of bad Michigan teams.

Tressel took his recruits and pretty much immediately won a natty. So it was definitely a coaching problem.
 

goblue96

Disney and Curling Expert
2-10-1 against your rival and a losing record in bowl games was tough. He was a coach who had national championship talent and managed to choke in every big game. Some of the best players in the history of OSU were Cooper players. He had 13 years to figure it out and couldn't get over the hump. He couldn't even take advantage of bad Michigan teams.

Tressel took his recruits and pretty much immediately won a natty. So it was definitely a coaching problem.
The 1995 OSU team was fucking stacked (Eddie George, Shawn Springs, Terry Glenn, Orlando Pace, Mike Vrabel, Ricky Dudley, Bobby Hoying was a game manager QB) and they let Touchdown Tim turn into Walter Payton for a day.
 
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bruin

Well-Known Member
Those ‘95/‘96 Ohio State-Michigan games were on ESPN Classic the last couple of weeks and you could almost feel the lemon booty those Buckeye teams got in the second half vs Michigan. Especially in ‘96 where they had like 4 possessions in UM’s territory in the 2nd half and came away with nothing.

‘96 ASU/Ohio State Rose Bowl still my favorite Rose Bowl I’ve ever seen though. (Traditional PAC-12 vs BigTen-not counting ‘06, of course)
 

Bdub

Well-Known Member
This whole situation is exactly the same as USC. Both teams fans somehow think they are capable of Bama type success and they are just one magical coach away from domination. I think in this era of college football, the blue bloods don't have near the advantage they once had. They still have their "brand", but are on equal footing with most P5 teams now. If they ever went to a fair playoff where teams actually had to win it on the field instead of the name on their jerseys, there would be a lot of good old boys with minds blown.
 

bruin

Well-Known Member
brands will always live.
why I’m weary of OU passing Utah on Sunday morning if both win.
2015 was a crock. (Or did Barry Alvarez throw the Big10 title?)
I kid, I kid..
 

Bdub

Well-Known Member
"If Utah wore USC jerseys every game, they would be ranked 4th and there would be nobody talking about them getting jumped by the boomers." Herby actually said this on ESPN this morning. Not sure why he is on the Utah bandwagon but I like it. Either way Utah probably chokes against Oregon and it doesn't matter in the end. This is the PAC 12 after all.
 

Wooly

Well-Known Member
This whole situation is exactly the same as USC. Both teams fans somehow think they are capable of Bama type success and they are just one magical coach away from domination. I think in this era of college football, the blue bloods don't have near the advantage they once had. They still have their "brand", but are on equal footing with most P5 teams now. If they ever went to a fair playoff where teams actually had to win it on the field instead of the name on their jerseys, there would be a lot of good old boys with minds blown.
So true.
 

BasinBictory

CHICKEN NUT BREAD
This whole situation is exactly the same as USC. Both teams fans somehow think they are capable of Bama type success and they are just one magical coach away from domination. I think in this era of college football, the blue bloods don't have near the advantage they once had. They still have their "brand", but are on equal footing with most P5 teams now. If they ever went to a fair playoff where teams actually had to win it on the field instead of the name on their jerseys, there would be a lot of good old boys with minds blown.
The "advantage" has always been about money. Money to hire the best coaches. Money for the best facilities. Money to buy parents and high school coaches and buy the kids cars, sneakers, clothes, jewelry, and skrippers. Money from boosters to pay off local cops to look the other way at the misdeeds of young men encouraged to do violence to the cheers of thousands.

So - as long as blue bloods are willing to raise and spend tons of money to build and maintain their program (and yes, fish around for the small handful of elite coaches that can make a team a 10+ wins a year juggernaut, instead of a mostly 8-4, 9-3 team) they'll have that advantage. USC's brand isn't what it was in the 60s and 70s because frankly, they don't shell out the kind of bucks that many SEC schools do (pr Oregon for that matter.)

A bigger playoff would be great, IMO. Even if a Boise State or UCF or Memphis somehow won the whole shebang, their coach would be poached the following year by one of the blue bloods willing to pay double what the podunk school was paying him.
 

bruin228

Madden Mobile Addict
NCAA Moderator
This whole situation is exactly the same as USC. Both teams fans somehow think they are capable of Bama type success and they are just one magical coach away from domination. I think in this era of college football, the blue bloods don't have near the advantage they once had. They still have their "brand", but are on equal footing with most P5 teams now. If they ever went to a fair playoff where teams actually had to win it on the field instead of the name on their jerseys, there would be a lot of good old boys with minds blown.
I agree with the last part in some sense, but I'm not sure about the other stuff. Sure seems like the disparity is getting worse between the HAVES and everyone else. The amount of talent on OSU, Bama, Klimpson, and the handful of others is ridiculous.