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2018-2019 Prem / Farewell Stoke Threade - who ate all the pies?

NML

Well-Known Member
@chibob are you bitching out or what? Those odds are that they finish outside top four, but I’m giving you fourth place. Even money is fair
 

goblue96

Disney and Curling Expert
Who wins in a fight, Gunnersaurus, Phanatic, or Orbit? We may need another @Dr. Shats Basoon meme poll tournament thread to figure this one out

bu8ukfT.gif
 

NML

Well-Known Member
Correct. You win if they are fourth or lower

I’ll put the line for Liverpool’s finish at 3.5 and take the over. You take the under and pick the wager amount

$200 sound good? Or 200 squiggles
 

hayvis

Will-Gnome Member
@chibob has got WAY the better odds for this off the top of my head. Would be a more even bet if @NML went down to 4th, but it's extremely congested for those top 3 spots.
 

NML

Well-Known Member
@chibob has got WAY the better odds for this off the top of my head. Would be a more even bet if @NML went down to 4th, but it's extremely congested for those top 3 spots.

Liverpool are the second favorites to win the league. Almost double of United and over three times Chelsea
 

hayvis

Will-Gnome Member
Liverpool are the second favorites to win the league. Almost double of United and over three times Chelsea

The bookies adjust to how much money has gone on, nothing else. Just means the second most amount of money has gone on. Probably Scousers being enthusiastic about their chances. Pre league or tournament odds are always skewed by this - for example see England odds pre any tournament....
 

chibob

Well-Known Member
Liverpool are the second favorites to win the league. Almost double of United and over three times Chelsea

I wonder what the odds were on them last year.


Do you reckon Mo Salah will recreate the form he had last year? because that really is what is going to make or break Liverpools season.
 

NML

Well-Known Member
They’ve been 9-2 odds since the beginning, so that doesn’t apply

They probably finish second last year with a decent keeper and a full year of van dijk
 

chibob

Well-Known Member
They’ve been 9-2 odds since the beginning, so that doesn’t apply

They probably finish second last year with a decent keeper and a full year of van dijk

Do you think Allison is the answer then?

As good as VVD is, the way Klopp sets up his team you are always going to concede goals, unless you blow a team out and they become unmotivated.
 

hayvis

Will-Gnome Member
Well rather you than me @NML . Any professional gambler will tell you never to bet on soccer if you want to win. It's a notoriously toxic bet.
 

NML

Well-Known Member
Well rather you than me @NML . Any professional gambler will tell you never to bet on soccer if you want to win. It's a notoriously toxic bet.

It’s has extremely high variance... in a single match

Not so much over a season. Obviously if injuries hit them hard they’ll struggle, but that’s true with any team
 

Yankee151

Hot Girl Summer
Keita and Fabinho are gamechangers too if they can click and dont pull a Bakayoko.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

NML

Well-Known Member
Just look at past clubs that have drawn over 10 times, and what their next season looked like:

United in 16-17: 15 draws, went from 6th to 2nd
Spurs in 15-16: 13, went from 70 points to 86

I went back 15 years and couldn’t find an English club who made even the semi finals in the champions league and then got lower than third the next season. A ton of money coming in to spend for this year

Their +46 GD would’ve been tops in the league in 15-16, 14-15, 12-13

A lot of that disparity in position/points and GD is bad variance for Liverpool. You can factor in their extended champions league run too

It’s possible that all happens again, or a big injury bug, or deep cup/Europe runs. It’s not a guarantee. But things certainly point to a top three finish
 

Karl Hungus

Here to fix the cable
I wonder what the odds were on them last year.


Do you reckon Mo Salah will recreate the form he had last year? because that really is what is going to make or break Liverpools season.


Probably not, but I'm excited to see the Naby Keita play for Klopp.
 

hayvis

Will-Gnome Member
Just look at past clubs that have drawn over 10 times, and what their next season looked like:

United in 16-17: 15 draws, went from 6th to 2nd
Spurs in 15-16: 13, went from 70 points to 86

I went back 15 years and couldn’t find an English club who made even the semi finals in the champions league and then got lower than third the next season. A ton of money coming in to spend for this year

Their +46 GD would’ve been tops in the league in 15-16, 14-15, 12-13

A lot of that disparity in position/points and GD is bad variance for Liverpool. You can factor in their extended champions league run too

It’s possible that all happens again, or a big injury bug, or deep cup/Europe runs. It’s not a guarantee. But things certainly point to a top three finish

This is the thing though. Liverpool have not been a consistent team. Add to that, they gained a great advantage from the form of one player who is very unlikely to repeat. So many things to go wrong. I think you're taking stats from consistent teams or even powerhouses and trying to apply them to a team that are more likely to have been one season wonders (see Past Liverpool teams also). There is a high probability of failure with them.
 

hayvis

Will-Gnome Member
I equate Liverpool's last season more with the couple of times in the last 15 years that they've had remarkable seasons than I do with any consistency or overall improvement trend. I would not be surprise at all to see them finish 5th.
 

NML

Well-Known Member
This is the thing though. Liverpool have not been a consistent team. Add to that, they gained a great advantage from the form of one player who is very unlikely to repeat. So many things to go wrong. I think you're taking stats from consistent teams or even powerhouses and trying to apply them to a team that are more likely to have been one season wonders (see Past Liverpool teams also). There is a high probability of failure with them.

I equate Liverpool's last season more with the couple of times in the last 15 years that they've had remarkable seasons than I do with any consistency or overall improvement trend. I would not be surprise at all to see them finish 5th.

What do those teams have in common to this one besides the name? Almost nothing

Once they hired Klopp, FSG have completely turned a corner with their spending. Even when they sold Suarez, they only spent 110m, for about a 35m net. They also spread it out over a ton of players, Lallana at 25m being the highest.

Compare that to now when they are spending 160m on three players! Plus Shaqiri and anyone else they bring in. Their only sale was third string keeper and the only other loss is Can, who was on the fringes for most of last year anyways.

Salah may very well drop off in his goal scoring, but I wouldn’t expect it to be drastic since all the variables are the same as last year. There’s also no reason to expect drop offs from anyone besides Milner, because they are all either in or hitting their prime. Don’t think any starter will be above 28.

It’s fair to say that they have been inconsistent under Klopp, but that’s been the difference between being a top two club vs fourth - not between sneaking into the top four and being outside.
 

hayvis

Will-Gnome Member
What do those teams have in common to this one besides the name? Almost nothing

Once they hired Klopp, FSG have completely turned a corner with their spending. Even when they sold Suarez, they only spent 110m, for about a 35m net. They also spread it out over a ton of players, Lallana at 25m being the highest.

Compare that to now when they are spending 160m on three players! Plus Shaqiri and anyone else they bring in. Their only sale was third string keeper and the only other loss is Can, who was on the fringes for most of last year anyways.

Salah may very well drop off in his goal scoring, but I wouldn’t expect it to be drastic since all the variables are the same as last year. There’s also no reason to expect drop offs from anyone besides Milner, because they are all either in or hitting their prime. Don’t think any starter will be above 28.

It’s fair to say that they have been inconsistent under Klopp, but that’s been the difference between being a top two club vs fourth - not between sneaking into the top four and being outside.
Anything in common? How about they had the most in form player in the world, in some games looked unbeatable and STILL managed to be inconsistent last year. I think we'll see more of the same.
 

NML

Well-Known Member
Are you talking about 13-14? Well the biggest difference would be they sold that player the following year, so I feel like the comparison stops there.

2-5 just looks really crowded to me. Chelsea without a champions league schedule seems dangerous to Liverpool’s chances.

Sure, I just think Liverpool is the second most talented
 

hayvis

Will-Gnome Member
Are you talking about 13-14? Well the biggest difference would be they sold that player the following year, so I feel like the comparison stops there.



Sure, I just think Liverpool is the second most talented

They had a killer team last year, and were in form for most of it. This year they add some players, but I personally doubt if the sum of the parts are better than last year with Salah unstoppable. They STILL only managed 4th. They have inconsistency inbuilt. I personally don't think that changes this year. I completely understand where you're coming from, but I will believe it when I see it. I would like them to win the league as I like the club, fans and way they are run, but as I say, will wait and see.
 
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