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hayvis gonna hammer into these shit for brains EURO 2021 or is it 2020, who fucking knows. Where Ingerlish dreams will finally come true. Or not
- Thread starter hayvis
- Start date
hayvis
Will-Gnome Member
I'm glad of that game, as it was extremely good practice for the Italians. Denmark obviously set out to frustrate and pack the box, and hope for a set piece or a break. Italy will do similar, but imo they aren't as big fuckers, so I'll take the fact that they are more talented over the fact that they're slightly less physical.
Same gameplan for the final! Own goal and a soft penalty gift
hayvis
Will-Gnome Member
I don't want to see any soft penalties, just own goals this time.
hayvis
Will-Gnome Member
Btw, I would admit if Ingerland were shit, but I really don't think they were tonight. I've seen that kind of game a lot, 20 years ago when Arsenal were good. It's fucking hard to break down a team that physically big that sets out it's stall only to play on the break, even if you clearly have a bucket load more talent on the pitch. As I said it's very good practice for the Italians, but I would predict the game will be slightly more open which will favour Ingerland.
Pickford was a liability and is my biggest concern. He's great when he doesn't go mental, but he went fucking mental tonight and nearly lost us the game. We need to give him tranquilisers.
Pickford was a liability and is my biggest concern. He's great when he doesn't go mental, but he went fucking mental tonight and nearly lost us the game. We need to give him tranquilisers.
hayvis
Will-Gnome Member
I ain't gonna feel guilty over that. Their game plan was to pull our wingers over on every attack and the ref obliged by never booking them for it. They fucking cheated all game and ruined it as a spectacle. It wasn't us that made that game look like a bag of shit.
Karl Hungus
Here to fix the cable
The six minutes of injury time, lol. Plus the extra minute beyond that where the ref let England have the ball. UEFA was terrified of having an empty Wembley for the final.
Karl Hungus
Here to fix the cable
Actually, empty that place out.
Brick
Well-Known Member
hayvis
Will-Gnome Member
If you honestly thought Ingerland didn't deserve to win that game, or that we were in the refs favour, you're fucking mad (or just pathetically biased). He let the Danish pull our players over on virtually every attack of the game without a yellow card.
We played much better than them. We deserve to be in the final. And I am not someone that doesn't give Ingerland shit when they deserve it.
Karl Hungus
Here to fix the cable
Brick
Well-Known Member
hayvis
Will-Gnome Member
So you just going to ditch the fact that we beat then on every statistical metric because you like the narrative of the ref getting us to the final. You fuckibg penis.
As I said, seems like you weren't watching when they fucking fouled us on every attack of the game and the ref barely awarded a single yellow to stop them. Soft penalties by a MASSIVE COINCIDENCE often get awarded when a team is fouling on every attack.
Fuck you Karl. It's really shit being English at the moment, and you don't have to try to rub shit in that isn't even there.
hayvis
Will-Gnome Member
That's the thing though. Statistically we deserved to win. It was close because Denmark set out to spoil the game, and the soft penalty was a direct result of that. If I thought we lucked it I would own up but we didn't and there are statistics to back that up.
If anyone says the ref got us into the final, when I next see them I will give them a kick in the balls.
hayvis
Will-Gnome Member
I'm not falling into your trap. Karl at least set a believable one.
NML
Well-Known Member
spewing this shit ruins the credibility of xG imo.
everything has to have context. like, its great that ingerland outshot denmark, but once denmark got the early goal, game script was always going to push the game in that direction. also, playing at home vs denmark - a team who is nowhere near the 4th best team here - england SHOULD have a huge xG advantage
once denmark got their first goal, their incentive to get a 2nd dropped a ton. if england scores first, the relative value of each shot changes massively.
anyways, england has completely grinded their way to the final. shitty performances across the board considering the opponent and locations. 1.01 xGF vs .88 xGA and they played a group of middle aged croatians, scotland, czech, ukraine, denmark, and the worst germany side in years, mostly at home.
not to say they wont win or dont "deserve to be here" whatever the hell that means, but theyve so bad relative to expectation. italy not a ton better since they had a bunch of shitty opponents in the group stage and HFA.
copa america final >>>>>>> euro final
Karl Hungus
Here to fix the cable
hayvis
Will-Gnome Member
No one is actually reading what I've said, just creating a narrative that I'm a honer, like Karl did for the referee. Everyone that's ever read my posts should know I'm not a honer for any of my teams.
The stats you're showing have us winning, which is my point. I never said we were an incredible attacking force in this game or that it was a pretty game to watch (I actually said the opposite). That was obviously fucking impossible since Denmark set out to kill the game, which is a valid tactic. But all I have said is we deserved to win, were statistically better in every area and that Denmark's plan was to foul in order to halt the England attack and hit us on the break/set pieces. That is why we ended up getting a soft penalty. - if any of you actually watched enough European football, you'd see soft penalties are quite common in games where physical sides try to stop the flow of a game, as there comes a point when the referee becomes influenced by the continual fouling.
Is there no merit to grinding out games/tournaments as it's not Murrican enough??
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hayvis
Will-Gnome Member
You lot don't even fucking read. At no point do I say that the game was anything but a grind? I literally make the point that it was... Of course we ground it out, and I explained perfectly well that it was because we had to.
That however doesn't invalidate my comment that we were the better team and deserved to win the game, or that we beat Denmark in nearly every statistic.
Please don't speak to me as if I don't know how football works.
To be honest, why am I surprised? Y'all being absolutely stereotypically American in your assessment of the game. The subtleties are completely lost on you. As long as no-one is defending and the game is an open attacking shit show, true Murrican's love it, which you've kindly backed up for me by suggesting what a wonderful tournament the Copa America is. Of course it's a marquee final as they're the only two fucking decent teams in the competition - What is it, like 4 times out of 20 that either Brazil or Argentina hasn't been in the final - GREAT TOURNAMENT
.I'm sure if France and Belgium were entitled to stroll their way to the Euro finals (this year), it would have made for a great spectacle, but that's not how it works when you have a variety of tactics at play and a plethora of top teams in the tournament. I'm not sure how exciting it is for me to watch two teams who are expected to win a competition battle it out for a meaningless trophy one of them was expected to easily win? You must like the finals of those pre-season friendly tournaments. I'm sure they're very exciting for you.
Copa America is a piss ball competition because you don't have the variety of defensive tactics of European football. It's the weakness of South American teams (with the exception of maybe Uruguay and Argentina to a smaller extent) when they end up against Euopean competition, because they don't have to regularly grind it out against spoiler teams like Denmark or face defensively superior teams. But to a dumb fuck American it looks better because there's more goals, mistakes and you get da GOAT teams in da final moar often. It's absolutely laughable that you can pretend some analytical superiority and then come out with this thick headed Murrican cliche...
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Rob's FSU
Well-Known Member
The other @Yankee151 Euro thread would've been better than this one.
hayvis
Will-Gnome Member
Bullshit. The prescience in this thread title immediately elevates it, even if the content is dog balls.
hayvis
Will-Gnome Member
Btw, I agree with Caley Graphics assessment, but Xg philosophy is actually more mainstream.
NML
Well-Known Member
You lot don't even fucking read. At no point do I say that the game was anything but a grind? I literally make the point that it was... Of course we ground it out, and I explained perfectly well that it was because we had to.
That however doesn't invalidate my comment that we were the better team and deserved to win the game, or that we beat Denmark in nearly every statistic.
Please don't speak to me as if I don't know how football works.
To be honest, why am I surprised? Y'all being absolutely stereotypically American in your assessment of the game. The subtleties are completely lost on you. As long as no-one is defending and the game is an open attacking shit show, true Murrican's love it, which you've kindly backed up for me by suggesting what a wonderful tournament the Copa America is. Of course it's a marquee final as they're the only two fucking decent teams in the competition - What is it, like 4 times out of 20 that either Brazil or Argentina hasn't been in the final - GREAT TOURNAMENT
I'm sure if France and Belgium were entitled to stroll their way to the Euro finals (this year), it would have made for a great spectacle, but that's not how it works when you have a variety of tactics at play and a plethora of top teams in the tournament. I'm not sure how exciting it is for me to watch two teams who are expected to win a competition battle it out for a meaningless trophy one of them was expected to easily win? You must like the finals of those pre-season friendly tournaments. I'm sure they're very exciting for you.
Copa America is a piss ball competition because you don't have the variety of defensive tactics of European football. It's the weakness of South American teams (with the exception of maybe Uruguay and Argentina to a smaller extent) when they end up against Euopean competition, because they don't have to regularly grind it out against spoiler teams like Denmark or face defensively superior teams. But to a dumb fuck American it looks better because there's more goals, mistakes and you get da GOAT teams in da final moar often. It's absolutely laughable that you can pretend some analytical superiority and then come out with this thick headed Murrican cliche...
what's funny is every post you make here screams "typical ingerland football fan" to me to me. thinks they have the game solved, overrates england massively, thinks americans know nothing, etc, etc
im not even going to argue with you on the technical side of the game or your terrible tactical analysis. its as embarrassing as when you tried to teach me about how gambling works lol.
feel free to make a friendly wager with me on the sport, would gladly take some of ur money from ur ivory ingerland tower. ill even give the winnings to a ULG in need. maybe youll run away like chibob to avoid paying and all of utopia will win
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NML
Well-Known Member
both models are complete shit, btw
DeadMan
aka spiker or DeadMong
Can you explain more? I don't use them for anything other than entertainment. I'm not a fan of how Caley handles penalties and own goals, personally, but I still find it interesting to look at. I feel like the attacking team should still get credit for penalties and own goals, because those aren't just random events necessarily. With the own goal last night, it happened because England got in a great attacking position, and if the ball makes it through to Sterling, it would be a lot of xG. Same with the penalty - it happened because Sterling
Is there something in addition to that? Or would it give away too much about your gambling secrets?
NML
Well-Known Member
“complete shit” was harsh. caley’s first model actually got me into modeling out soccer. but he’s got a long ways to go
- pks/own goals are tough, and i think breaking them out separately is fine. like you said, neither are completely random, but also hard to predict
- to that point, you really need play by play data to accurately get a true attacking ability of a team. this isn’t readily available anywhere since it’s all proprietary, but American Soccer Analysis has some awesome stuff they’ve published on it. their g+ model is very good: https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/what-are-goals-added
- lastly, not only do you need pbp, but you need player locations. the easiest way to see why this is important is imagine a shot from 30 yards away. your normal shot from there is basically worthless, maybe .02 xG. but if there’s no defenders in the way, it goes up. and if the player just rounded the keeper, well now it’s basically a tap in. generic shot data doesn’t capture all this
- pks/own goals are tough, and i think breaking them out separately is fine. like you said, neither are completely random, but also hard to predict
- to that point, you really need play by play data to accurately get a true attacking ability of a team. this isn’t readily available anywhere since it’s all proprietary, but American Soccer Analysis has some awesome stuff they’ve published on it. their g+ model is very good: https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/what-are-goals-added
- lastly, not only do you need pbp, but you need player locations. the easiest way to see why this is important is imagine a shot from 30 yards away. your normal shot from there is basically worthless, maybe .02 xG. but if there’s no defenders in the way, it goes up. and if the player just rounded the keeper, well now it’s basically a tap in. generic shot data doesn’t capture all this
hayvis
Will-Gnome Member
hayvis
Will-Gnome Member
And @NML i admitted you lost me on the fucking gambling thing. I just wanted you to shut up about it.
That arose out of me making a joke about how Ingerland were massively overrated by the bookies (which went south because of your awful dead pan attitude to gambling), which shows the cognitive dissonance of you trying to suggest that I'm some kind of Ingerland homer.
You aren't making sense at all now so I suggest you stop.
That arose out of me making a joke about how Ingerland were massively overrated by the bookies (which went south because of your awful dead pan attitude to gambling), which shows the cognitive dissonance of you trying to suggest that I'm some kind of Ingerland homer.
You aren't making sense at all now so I suggest you stop.
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Brick
Well-Known Member
saying I AM MOAR CRITICAL OF MA'TEAM THAN ANYONE is straight out of the @jamesnathan and 
school of homerism.
school of homerism.
adchester
A-1 From Day 1
Isn't it?saying I AM MOAR CRITICAL OF MA'TEAM THAN ANYONE is straight out of the @jamesnathan and
hayvis
Will-Gnome Member
saying I AM MOAR CRITICAL OF MA'TEAM THAN ANYONE is straight out of the @jamesnathan and
What else am I supposed to say? I know Ingerland are eternal fuck ups. I've never said anything different.
I'm now getting told by @NML that on the one hand I overrated Ingerland, but on the other hand I can't make a joke about us being total dog shit and not worth the posirion of 2ns favourite at the start of the tournament.
He's the fuck tard that doesn't make sense not me.
Karl Hungus
Here to fix the cable
I admit that I am thoroughly enjoying how a certain segment of the English are losing their minds and can't enjoy this because the team is built from the fruits of immigration. I hope they kneel in front of the queen at the final.