Stephen Curry has forced us to reconsider a lot of what we believed about the
NBA this season.
Shot-selection norms, perimeter-based offenses, the outer limits of individual confidence—all are under reconsideration because the reigning MVP has doubled down on everything that made him singularly dominant a year ago. To that list we now add awards.
Teammate Harrison Barnes has been along for the ride, watching Curry decimate defenses and lead the
Golden State Warriors to the best start in NBA history. And his thoughts, delivered on ESPN's
NBA Countdown, bear repeating:
The guy who was, by definition, the league's best player last season could and should be considered the front-runner for that honor again. Only now, by
also proving the best can get better, he deserves Most Improved honors, too.
Where Curry Stands Against Previous Winners
Judged against the last five winners of the NBA's Most Improved Player award—Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic,
Paul George, Ryan Anderson and Kevin Love—Curry's credentials are strong. The graphic below shows relevant statistical increases by Curry this year over last, as well as the margins by which past winners improved in the season they collected their award.
Here's how he stacks up against that group:
Curry has improved over last year by
more than previous winners in a couple of meaningful categories, most notably points per game and win shares per 48 minutes. His
increases in effective field-goal percentage and player efficiency rating are also competitive with the biggest MIP spikes of the past half-decade.
Just as telling: Curry's minutes per game haven't increased nearly as much as those of many past winners, which shows the nature of his improvement has been more qualitative than quantitative.
And in a league that prizes efficiency so much, shouldn't that matter more?
Curry's usage rate has climbed to
33.2 this season after hitting a career-high 28.9 a year ago, but his turnover rate has, incredibly, declined. He's also displaying his most efficient shot selection ever, which sounds insane when you consider he's routinely taking attempts like this:
But by the numbers, Curry's optimizing his shots, matching or setting career highs in
percentage of field goals attempted from 0-3 feet and beyond the arc.
Before moving on, we have to say more about those threes.
Through games played on Nov. 30, Curry had
42 more made triples than any other player in the league. The second- and third-ranked entrants in that category, Kyle Lowry and
Damian Lillard, made 103 treys
combined. Curry hit 94 all by himself.
As FiveThirtyEight.com's
Kirk Goldsberry wrote, this type of three-point barrage is unprecedented:
Curry leads the league in scoring, and if he wins a scoring title this season, he will be the most perimeter-oriented player to ever do so.
As I wrote last season, he’s transforming the way we see point guards and 3-point shooters in the NBA. That may seem like hyperbole, but it’s not; between Curry’s volume, his efficiency and his quickness, it’s easy to argue that he is the best 3-point shooter the NBA has ever seen.
The nature of Curry's improvement matters because he's getting better in a way nobody else ever has, and he's growing right along the trend line of an NBA obsessed with outside shooting and skilled perimeter play. These are trends Curry was instrumental in turbo-charging last season, but what he's doing this year blows even his own MVP efforts away.
We're talking about improvement of a league-transforming variety. If that's not award-worthy, what is?
The Resistance
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
There's still this idea that the Most Improved Player award should go to an emerging talent, usually one seeing an increased role and enjoying the statistical breakout that comes with it. George, Anderson and Love all saw significant spikes in playing time that inflated their award-winning numbers.
So the search for challengers to Curry this year has to start with those types of players.
C.J. McCollum's scoring average has climbed by 13.1 points per game, a jump that might as well be a deafening siren to national media and broadcasters who want to make the safest MIP decision. But he's getting those numbers on a bad team, while carrying a bigger load by necessity and also, significantly, because he's finally healthy in his third season.
McCollum's minutes per game are up from 15.7 last year to 34.9 this year, but his effective field-goal percentage is actually
down by just a hair. Curry's PER has actually risen by more, which bolsters the case thatMcCollum hasn't really improved as much as he's finally gotten a chance to show what he can do. Kudos to him for capitalizing; he's had a great start.
But he hasn't gotten better in the same way Curry has.
Evan Fournier is another McColllum-like option. He's seeing six more minutes per game and scoring an extra 5.2 points. But his effective field-goal percentage has risen
not even half as much as Curry's, and his PER is only up
2.9 points, barely above the league average.
Nicolas Batum is bouncing back with the
Charlotte Hornets, but his play has been more of a rediscovery of past skill than an improvement. If the award's name hadn't changed from Comeback Player of the Year, he'd be worth consideration.
Then there's Andre Drummond, precisely the kind of breakout star this award seems to favor. He's increased his scoring and rebounding averages by roughly four per game since last season, doing it with some hard-to-ignore box-score nights. His improvement has been conspicuous, riddled with highlights and tied to genuine growth in skill.
Yet Curry's PER, effective field-goal percentage and win shares per 48 minutes have all increased by more than Drummond's this season. And
nobody has been more conspicuous than Curry.
So, Why Not?
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
That's not a toss-away, "this award's just for fun" rhetorical question.
Seriously: Why shouldn't Curry be the MIP front-runner?
Because the award somehow isn't for players who are already superstars? Because the history of the award has never featured a returning MVP finishing in the top 10 in voting, per ESPN.com's
Micah Adams?
That's arbitrary stuff, and the award isn't engraved with anything like "Most Improved Who Also Wasn't Really Good in the First Place." And while there's leeway to quibble over what valuable means in the context of MVP, there's no such wiggle room with the word "improved." It's just asking whose growth was most significant.
And Curry's statistical case is as compelling as anyone's so far.
But there's also a key distinction that gives him an added edge: Curry has improved from great to greater, which is a far steeper climb than the decent-to-good or even good-to-great ascents the award typically recognizes. The degree of difficulty is markedly higher for Curry because it's objectively hard to improve on what he did a year ago, and because each neuron in every opponent's brain is devoted to stopping him from even touching the ball.
Danny Moloshok/Associated Press
No other MIP candidate faces a focus like that. And even
with such scrutiny and scheming in his way, Curry has still improved more than anyone—past award winners and current competitors included.
So even if you're staunchly opposed to the idea of an MVP winning Most Improved, and even if you're just not going to acknowledge Curry's statistical case, let's agree we've glossed over something significant: There is no longer any debate about the identity of the league's best player.
Curry, barring disaster, will win another MVP this year. And this one won't come with the contentions that
James Harden or LeBron James or
Russell Westbrook deserved it more. There was debate when Curry took home
that trophy a year ago.
If he keeps playing like this, there will be none this time around.
That's a pretty important improvement on its own.
All stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and current through games played Nov. 30.